The ALP has retained its lead over the L-NP in the final week of the election campaign and is set to win tomorrow’s Federal Election with a two-party preferred vote of ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% - a swing of 4.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Michele Levine talks through the latest political and economic research for the week, with the election looming large on the horizon. Including Consumer Confidence, Federal Voting Intentions, and Inflation Expectations

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows unemployment increasing by 1.9% points to 9.7% in April - the biggest monthly increase since the initial stages of the pandemic just over two years ago. However, under-employment was unchanged at 8.4% in April.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 1.2 points to 89.3 this week, a fourth straight weekly drop and is now at its lowest since August 15/16, 2020 (88.6) nearly two years ago. This is the longest series of declines in the index since that same month when Consumer Confidence dropped for seven straight weeks in June – August 2020.

The ALP’s lead over the L-NP has been cut to 6% points as early voting began last week but it still holds a clear election winning lead before this week’s Federal Election: ALP 53% (down 1.5% points in a week) ahead of the L-NP 47% (up 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis.

In April 2022 Australians expected inflation of 5.5% annually over the next two years, down 0.3% points from March 2022. The level of Inflation Expectations in April represents a pullback from the large monthly increase in March (+0.7% points) which sent the measure to a near decade high.

The March quarter 2022 provided a new experience for many Australians – official ABS CPI figures showed inflation at an annual rate of 5.1% - the highest for over 20 years.

New financial data from Roy Morgan’s Single Source shows Bendigo Bank has topped the latest banking customer satisfaction ratings among home loan customers in early 2022. Bendigo Bank increased their customer satisfaction from 89.9% a year ago in March 2021, up 1.3% points to an excellent score of 91.2% in March 2022 to top the rankings.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has fallen 6pts (-6.2%) to 90.5 over the last two weeks during the period in which began with the ABS releasing a higher-than-expected CPI of 5.1% for the year to March 2022. Following the higher-than-expected inflation reading the RBA increased interest rates by 0.25% points to 0.35% last week - the first increase to official interest rates for over a decade.

In April 2022 Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumped by 6.3pts (+5.9%) to 106.7. The strong result for April came after Treasurer Josh Frydenberg handed down the Federal Budget at the end of March which included a slashing in the fuel excise by over 20 cents per litre.

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition increasing by 0.5% points to 47.5% in April, clearly ahead of Labour/Greens on 44%, up 1.5% points. This continues to be the equal highest level of support for National since January 2020.

The ANZ Roy Morgan Financial Wellbeing Indicator (FWBI) has been a compelling measure of how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted lives and livelihoods in Australia. Since prior to the start of the pandemic, the FWBI has been reported as a 12-month rolling average, with quarterly updates showing the movement in aspects of financial wellbeing across locations and for a range of segments in the community.